Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 8.961685 10.526186 12.244703 14.267275 16.577080 19.127013 22.149326
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 6.540473 8.652402 11.214226 14.525801 18.665670 23.640465 30.038001
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 4.814286 7.082123 10.083828 14.289239 19.960266 27.265090 37.294388
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 3.545452 5.750065 8.908100 13.659932 20.503696 29.856595 43.421853
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 2.702692 4.795385 8.016390 13.181526 21.061765 32.394300 49.614371
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 2.211097 4.252609 7.601448 13.277912 22.376993 36.038682 57.621660
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 1.784030 3.711124 7.071806 13.075428 23.153004 38.896816 64.667388
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 1.585301 3.527287 7.094557 13.753611 25.365630 44.105383 75.674456
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 1.368290 3.256772 6.909201 14.027158 26.906055 48.347741 85.469944
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 1.163775 2.963028 6.624827 14.067583 28.023030 51.960066 94.493313
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.994952 2.705441 6.362352 14.099807 29.105060 55.571582 103.749585
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.937215 2.687710 6.580826 15.084670 32.018698 62.544744 119.162876
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.846381 2.576543 6.597118 15.692959 34.337280 68.749499 133.877664
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.763443 2.467008 6.601696 16.283046 36.693158 75.232837 149.599843
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.646233 2.235290 6.285987 16.142003 37.576559 79.076342 160.867611
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.521606 1.945312 5.774609 15.486960 37.324019 80.741928 168.246047
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.425893 1.711052 5.353639 14.970017 37.289671 82.798778 176.466266
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.371406 1.591404 5.207868 15.084568 38.627993 87.649799 190.319683
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.313114 1.439105 4.942017 14.860711 39.180134 90.945135 201.350390
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.293755 1.421682 5.056324 15.620254 42.050430 99.198170 222.667108
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.263293 1.351745 5.001840 15.926484 43.882554 105.392202 240.195651
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.230031 1.258681 4.858322 15.971837 45.093531 110.345836 255.492533
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.201023 1.172543 4.719012 16.007921 46.281775 115.325949 271.129078